HOTTE #13: Is it explanation yet?

A meditation on Newtonian mechanics, ‘life-history theory’, and optimal bus networks.

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Why is Universal Basic Income suddenly such a great idea?

16 Apr 2020

The idea of an unconditional basic income, paid to all (UBI), has a long history. Very long in fact. Yet, although the policy has been deemed philosophically and (sometimes) economically attractive, it has generally languished in the bailiwick of enthusiasts, mavericks, philosophers and policy nerds (these are, by the way, overlapping categories). But now, with the global pandemic, UBI is very much back in the spotlight. Previous sceptics are coming out with more enthusiastic assessments (for example, here and here). Spain apparently aims to roll out a UBI scheme ‘as soon as possible‘ in response to the crisis, with the aim that this becomes a ‘permanent instrument’ of how the Spanish state works. And even the US Congress relief cheques for citizens, though short-term, have a UBI-like quality to them. So why, all over the place, does UBI suddenly seem like such a great idea? Answering this question requires answering another, prior one: why didn’t people think it was such a great idea before? To understand why people’s objections have gone away, you need to understand what they were before, as well as why they seem less compelling in this time of upheaval. UBI is a policy that appears to … Continue reading “Why is Universal Basic Income suddenly such a great idea?”

This is no time for utilitarianism!

8 Apr 2020

An interesting feature of the current crisis is the number of times we hear our leaders proclaiming that there are not weighing costs against benefits: ‘We will do whatever it takes!’. ‘We will give the hospitals whatever they need!’. And even, memorably, from the UK Chancellor, ‘We will set no limit on what we spend on this!’. No limit. I mean when did the UK Treasury ever say that? Maybe only during the war, which is a clue. Such statements seem timely and reassuring just at the moment. When people are timorous enough to question whether some of this largesse might actually be sensible – for example, whether the long-term costs of some decisions might be greater than the benefits – it seems in incredibly poor taste. But people are dying! Those commentators are roundly excoriated on social media for letting the side down. All of this is something of a puzzle. The whole essence of evidence-based policy, of policy modelling, is that you always calculate benefits and costs; of course this is difficult, and is never a politically neutral exercise, given that there are so many weightings and ways one might do so. Nonetheless, the weighing of costs and … Continue reading “This is no time for utilitarianism!”

Are people selfish or cooperative in the time of COVID-19?

25 Mar 2020

On March 12th 2020, in a press conference, the UK’s chief scientific advisor Patrick Vallance stated that, in times of social challenge like the current pandemic, the people’s response is an outbreak of altruism. On the other hand, we have seen plenty of examples in the current crisis of bad behaviour: people fighting over the last bag of pasta, price gouging, flouting restrictions, and so on. So there is probably the raw material to tell both a positive and a negative story of human nature under severe threat, and both might even be true. Rebecca Saxe and I are trying to study intuitive theories of human nature. That is, not what people actually do in times of threat or pandemic, but what people believe other people will do in such times. This is important, because so much of our own behaviour is predicated on predictions about what others will do: if I think everyone else is going to panic buy, I should probably do so too; if I think they won’t, there is no need for me to do so. We have developed a method where we ask people about hypothetical societies to which various events happen, and get our … Continue reading “Are people selfish or cooperative in the time of COVID-19?”

The view from the top of the hierarchy of evidence

1 Oct 2019

About five years ago I began doing meta-analyses. (If, as they say, you lose a tooth for every meta-analysis you conduct, I am now gumming my way through my food.) I was inspired by their growing role as the premier source of evidence in the health and behavioural sciences. Yes, I knew, individual studies are low-powered, depend on very specific methodological assumptions, and are often badly done; but I was impressed by the argument that if we systematically combine each of these imperfect little beams of light into one big one, we are sure to see clearly and discover The Truth. Meta-analysis was how I proposed to counter my mid-life epistemological crisis. I was therefore depressed to read a paper by John Ionnidis, he of ‘Why most published research findings are false’ fame, on how the world is being rapidly filled up with redundant, mass produced, and often flawed meta-analyses. It is, he argues, the same old story of too much output, produced too fast, with too little thought and too many author degrees of freedom, and often publication biases and flagrant conflicts of interest to boot. Well, it’s the same old story but now at the meta-level. Just because … Continue reading “The view from the top of the hierarchy of evidence”

Hanging on to the Edges book published

25 Oct 2018

I am delighted to be able to say that my new book Hanging on to the Edges is now published. Thanks to Open Book Publishers, it’s an open access book; you can read it online, download the PDF, or order paper copies here. People often ask me what Hanging on to the Edges is about, and it is not entirely easy to say. It is based on fourteen blog essays I published on this site over the past two years, though they are revised and re-ordered in the book version. It is an attempt to reflect on the major things I care about most in life: science and being a scientist; human nature and human cognition; the relationship between the social and the biological; inter-disciplinarity; politics; and human well-being. To give you some idea of the scope, here’s a word cloud of the terms in the index: And here’s the table of contents: Contents Introduction PART ONE 1. How my theory explains everything: And can make you happier, healthier, and wealthier 2. What we talk about when we talk about biology 3. The cultural and the agentic 4. What is cultural evolution like? 5. Is it explanation yet? PART TWO 6. The mill … Continue reading “Hanging on to the Edges book published”

HOTTE #14: Morale is high (since I gave up hope)

15 May 2018

Buddhism and the replication crisis: morale is high (PDF) Click here to return to the Hanging On To The Edges hompage.